Adobe Data: First 3 Weeks of November Online Sales Remain Strong Despite Economic Challenges

In advance of Cyber Week, Adobe has issued new Adobe Analytics data for the first three weeks of the Nov-Dec holiday season.

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Adobe provides a comprehensive view of US eCommerce by analyzing consumer transactions online. The analysis covers over one trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories.

Powered by Adobe Analytics, the initial holiday season data showed that in the first three weeks (Nov. 1 to Nov. 21) of the Nov-Dec holiday season, consumers have spent $64.59 billion online, up 0.1% year-over-year (YoY) and essentially flat.

The minor uptick, however, shows that despite a challenging spending environment (persistent inflation, rising rates), consumers still have a strong appetite for holiday shopping.

Last year, consumers spent a total of $204.5 billion over the 2021 holiday season, up 8.6% year-over-year (YoY). Will 2022 top 2021?

So far, there have been 9 days where shoppers spent over $2 billion online in a single day (12 days at over $3 billion online)—on par with levels in 2021, suggesting it might be possible.

This continues to highlight how eCommerce has become a ubiquitous daily activity, especially as holiday deals come earlier and more frequently. 

Discounts: Buy Toys Now, Wait on Electronics

Earlier deals have enticed consumers to begin shopping earlier. Discounts for toys have hit a record high, peaking at 30% (off listed price) in the first three weeks of the season.

At these levels, consumers won’t need to wait until Cyber Week for deals. In fact, many are not: Online sales of toys are up 172% when compared to daily average sales last month (Oct. 2022).

Strong discounts have already been observed in electronics (22%), computers (14%), appliances (13%) and televisions (13%), but consumers can expect bigger price drops from Thanksgiving Day to Cyber Monday.

More modest price drops have been observed in apparel (12%), sporting goods (8%) and furniture (4%), categories that are also expected to see deeper discounts during Cyber Week. 

Additional Insights

Hot sellers: The hottest toys in the first three weeks of November included Hot Wheels and Paw Patrol. The Nintendo Switch was a top-selling game console. Other hot sellers included smart speakers, air fryers, Apple iPad, and gift cards. 

Surging categories online: Sales of kitchenware are up 155% (compared to daily average sales in October 2022) as consumers begin to plan holiday meals. Other surging categories include outerwear (up 277%) and gift cards (up 106%). 

Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) uptick: As we enter the holiday season, consumers are looking for new ways to manage their finances. Orders completed using the BNPL payment method have grown 13% YoY so far this season. 

“We are beginning to see the impact of earlier holiday deals, as retailers contend with oversupply and a softening spending environment,” said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital Insights.

“eCommerce has remained resilient thus far per Adobe Analytics, a strong start to the season as we look towards Cyber Monday, which is expected to set new records for online shopping.”

Cyber Week 

Adobe expects Cyber Week (the 5 days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) will generate $34.8 billion in online spending, up 2.8% YoY, and represent a 16.3% share of the full Nov-Dec holiday season.

Cyber Monday will remain the season’s and year’s biggest online shopping day at $11.2 billion, up 5.1% YoY.

But, other days are losing prominence as online shopping spreads out throughout the season. Black Friday is expected to bring in $9 billion (up just 1% YoY), and Thanksgiving Day is expected to bring in $5.1 billion (down 1% YoY).