American consumer spending online over the weekend (Saturday and Sunday) stayed strong at $9.55 billion, up 4.4% YoY over both days ($4.59 billion on Sat, Nov. 26, up 2.6% YoY / $4.96 billion on Sun, Nov. 27, up 6.1% YoY).
The two-day weekend total tops Black Friday’s record spending of $9.12 billion.
But with Cyber Monday today being the biggest holiday shopping day of the season online, Adobe expects consumers to spend between $11.2 billion and $11.6 billion, poised to set another record.
This would cap off a strong Cyber Week, where Black Friday ($9.12 billion, up 2.3% YoY) and Thanksgiving ($5.29 billion, up 2.9% YoY) came in above projections. Last year, consumers spent $10.7 billion on Cyber Monday.
Strong consumer spend has been driven by net-new demand, and not just higher prices.
The Adobe Digital Price Index, which tracks online prices across 18 product categories (complements the BLS’ Consumer Price Index, which also includes prices for offline-only products and services like gasoline and rent) shows that prices online have been nearly flat in recent months (down 0.7% YoY in Oct. 2022).
Adobe’s numbers are not adjusted for inflation, but if online inflation were factored in, there would still be growth in underlying consumer demand.
Shoppers will find record discounts today for computers (peaking at 27% off listed price). Great deals will also be found in nearly all categories tracked, including apparel (19%), toys (33%), electronics (25%), sporting goods (16%), televisions (15%), and furniture (11%).
Those looking to buy an appliance should consider waiting until Thursday (Dec. 1), when discounts are set to peak at 18% on average.
Season-to-date (Nov. 1 to Nov. 27), consumers have spent a total of $96.42 billion online, up 2.1% YoY. And while the big days (Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday) have reached new heights, consumers spent at record levels all season.
Since Nov. 1, shoppers spent over $2 billion every single day, with 19 days above $3 billion in online spending. Broad, early discounts were the main drivers for the shift in consumer spending.
Top sellers this weekend included Hot Wheels, Cocomelon, Bluey, Disney Encanto, L.O.L. Surprise dolls, Roblox, and Fortnite in the toys category.
Nintendo Switch, Xbox Series X and PlayStation 5 remain the top-selling gaming consoles, with popular games including FIFA 23, God of War Ragnarök, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II, Madden 23, and NBA 2k23. Other hot sellers included Apple iPads, Apple MacBooks, digital cameras, Roku devices, drones, gift cards and Instapots.
“There is a ton of momentum coming into Cyber Monday, after a surprising Sunday where consumers latched onto early deals and spent nearly $5 billion online, shattering previous records,” said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital Insights.
“With discounts set to reach new heights today, Adobe expects Cyber Monday will be a major bright spot this season.”
Additional Adobe Analytics Insights
Surging Categories: Over the weekend, online sales of toys were up 383% (compared to average daily sales for the category in October 2022), with baby toys seeing strong demand (up 252%).
Other categories that surged over the weekend include jewelry (up 230%), sporting goods (up 239%), and apparel (up 217%).
Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL): With online spending hitting new records and inflation impacting consumers, flexible payments have become a big story this season. In the last week (Nov. 21 to Nov. 27), BNPL orders have risen 68% and revenue has increased 72% when compared to the week prior.
Mobile Shopping: Over the weekend, smartphones drove over half of online sales for the first time (52%, up from 48% last year).
Adobe expects mobile shopping to dip on Cyber Monday however, based on historical trends. Many people are back at work and using laptops, which will be the preferred device for shopping online.
Curbside pickup was used in 15% of online orders over the weekend (for retailers who offer the service).
This is down slightly from 18% last year. Adobe does not anticipate a major uptick in curbside pickup on Cyber Monday.
As we enter December, Adobe expects curbside pickup will peak from Dec. 22 to Dec. 23 (right before Christmas Eve) and account for 35% of all orders.
Adobe expects Cyber Week (the 5 days from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday) to generate $34.8 billion in online spending, up 2.8% YoY, and represent a 16.3% share of the full Nov-Dec holiday season.
Adobe provides a comprehensive view of US eCommerce spending by analyzing consumer transactions online. The analysis covers over one trillion visits to US retail sites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories.
During the holiday season, Adobe offers daily updates on consumer spending on its Holiday Shopping Trends & Insights Reports here.
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